Is the Housing Market Going to Crash? Here’s What the Data Really Says in King and Snohomish Counties

Every few months, headlines start to swirl with one familiar question: “Is the housing market about to crash?” It’s an understandable concern, especially after years of rising home prices and higher mortgage rates. But when you look at what’s actually happening, both nationally and right here at home, the data tells a much different story.

Prices Aren’t Crashing. They’re Normalizing.

Nationally, home prices have continued to climb, not fall. While the pace of appreciation has cooled from the record-breaking levels of 2021 and 2022, experts at Keeping Current Matters report that prices are still trending higher, just at a more sustainable rate.

Here in our region, King and Snohomish Counties are showing steady appreciation that far outpaces the national average. According to NWMLS data:

• King County: up 8.6% from 2023 to 2024, and up 2.6% from 2024 to 2025

• Snohomish County: up 4.1% from 2023 to 2024, and up 2.6% from 2024 to 2025

That’s consistent, healthy growth, not the sign of a market on the verge of decline.

What Experts Are Saying Nationally

When we zoom out to the national picture, the forecasts remain optimistic. Experts across major financial and housing institutions expect continued appreciation through 2029, just at a modest pace.

The first chart below shows how economists are projecting cumulative price growth over the next few years – ranging from 4.9% on the pessimistic end to 25.8% on the optimistic side.

Even the most conservative outlook calls for steady gains. And the detailed annual forecast below shows that year-over-year appreciation is expected to continue through 2029, averaging around 2–3% per year.

How Our Local Market Compares

What stands out is that King and Snohomish Counties have consistently outperformed national averages. While national appreciation is expected to hover between 2–3% annually, our local market continues to post stronger growth year after year. This reflects high demand, limited supply, and a strong regional economy.

This pattern isn’t new. The greater Seattle area has historically run ahead of national trends due to:

• A robust job market driven by tech, aerospace, and healthcare sectors

• Ongoing population growth and migration from other regions

• A persistent lack of new housing inventory

All of which point to stability and continued long-term value for homeowners.

The Bottom Line

The housing market isn’t crashing, it’s balancing. Prices are rising at a sustainable pace, and local homeowners continue to build equity faster than most of the country.

If you’ve been waiting for prices to drop before making your move, you may be waiting longer than you think. With steady appreciation and strong fundamentals in King and Snohomish Counties, the data shows a market that’s healthy, resilient, and still full of opportunity.

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