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What a Recession Could Mean for the South Snohomish & North King County Housing Market
Lately, recession talk has been dominating the headlines, and with rising economic uncertainty in 2025, many homeowners and buyers in South Snohomish and North King County are asking: What would a recession mean for our local housing market?
Let’s dive into what history shows us—and what you should really expect.
A Recession Doesn’t Automatically Mean Home Prices Will Drop
A common misconception is that a recession leads to falling home prices. While that happened during the 2008 housing crisis, it’s important to remember that was an outlier—driven by a very specific set of circumstances tied to risky lending practices and a housing bubble.
In fact, according to historical data, home prices actually increased in four out of the last six recessions. Most of the time, real estate prices remain resilient or even rise, because housing continues to be driven by supply and demand—not just the broader economy.
Here in South Snohomish and North King County, housing demand has remained strong due to limited inventory and continued migration to the area. Even with some national headwinds, home prices have shown steady, moderate growth, not a sharp decline.
Mortgage Rates Tend to Drop During Recessions
While home prices don’t typically crash during recessions, mortgage rates often do fall. Historically, during each of the last six U.S. recessions, interest rates declined as the Federal Reserve worked to stimulate the economy.
This can be a silver lining for local buyers. If we do enter a recession, mortgage rates in South Snohomish and North King County could dip, offering a more affordable entry point—though it’s unlikely we’ll see the return of ultra-low 3% rates.
What This Means for Buyers and Sellers
For homebuyers, a recession could present an opportunity: slightly lower rates and a less competitive market. For homeowners and sellers, local data shows home values are holding strong—so fears of a market crash aren’t supported by history or current trends.
As your trusted local expert, Bill Jordan with Century 21, I’ve helped clients navigate every kind of market—and I’m here to help you make informed decisions in any economic climate.
