What a Recession Could Mean for the South Snohomish & North King County Housing Market

Lately, recession talk has been dominating the headlines, and with rising economic uncertainty in 2025, many homeowners and buyers in South Snohomish and North King County are asking: What would a recession mean for our local housing market?

Let’s dive into what history shows us—and what you should really expect.

A Recession Doesn’t Automatically Mean Home Prices Will Drop

A common misconception is that a recession leads to falling home prices. While that happened during the 2008 housing crisis, it’s important to remember that was an outlier—driven by a very specific set of circumstances tied to risky lending practices and a housing bubble.

In fact, according to historical data, home prices actually increased in four out of the last six recessions. Most of the time, real estate prices remain resilient or even rise, because housing continues to be driven by supply and demand—not just the broader economy.

Here in South Snohomish and North King County, housing demand has remained strong due to limited inventory and continued migration to the area. Even with some national headwinds, home prices have shown steady, moderate growth, not a sharp decline.

Mortgage Rates Tend to Drop During Recessions

While home prices don’t typically crash during recessions, mortgage rates often do fall. Historically, during each of the last six U.S. recessions, interest rates declined as the Federal Reserve worked to stimulate the economy.

This can be a silver lining for local buyers. If we do enter a recession, mortgage rates in South Snohomish and North King County could dip, offering a more affordable entry point—though it’s unlikely we’ll see the return of ultra-low 3% rates.

What This Means for Buyers and Sellers

For homebuyers, a recession could present an opportunity: slightly lower rates and a less competitive market. For homeowners and sellers, local data shows home values are holding strong—so fears of a market crash aren’t supported by history or current trends.

As your trusted local expert, Bill Jordan with Century 21, I’ve helped clients navigate every kind of market—and I’m here to help you make informed decisions in any economic climate.

Spring has arrived in South Snohomish and North King County, and the housing market is blossoming alongside it. If you’re contemplating buying or selling a home, now might be the perfect time. Here’s why this season presents promising opportunities:​

1. Increased Inventory in the Local Market

After a period of limited housing options, the number of homes for sale in our area is on the rise. In February 2025, active residential listings in King County increased by 37% compared to last year, and 9% from the previous month, indicating a healthier selection for buyers.

Buyers: With more properties available, you have a broader selection to find your ideal home.​

Sellers: The expanded inventory means you’ll likely find suitable options for your next move, and with demand still strong, your current property remains attractive to buyers.​

2. Moderating Home Price Growth

As inventory grows, the rapid acceleration of home prices is beginning to stabilize. In February 2025, King County’s median residential sold price remained relatively flat year-over-year, inching up from $914,500 to $915,000, indicating sustained short-term growth.

Buyers: Stabilizing prices provide a more predictable environment, allowing you to make informed decisions without the pressure of rapidly escalating costs.​

Sellers: While prices remain strong, setting a realistic price is crucial to attract serious buyers in a more balanced market.​

3. Stabilizing Mortgage Rates

Mortgage rates have shown signs of stabilization recently. As of March 28, 2025, the average interest rate for a 30-year fixed mortgage in Washington is 6.63%. ​

Buyers: Stable rates make financial planning more straightforward, helping you understand and anticipate your future mortgage payments.​

Sellers: Predictable mortgage rates can encourage more buyers to enter the market, increasing the pool of potential purchasers for your property.​

4. Renewed Buyer Activity

With improved inventory, moderated price growth, and stable mortgage rates, buyer confidence is returning. In February 2025, King County saw 1,644 homes sold, a slight increase from 1,630 the previous year. ​

Buyers: Acting promptly can be advantageous before competition intensifies further.​

Sellers: An uptick in buyer activity enhances the likelihood of selling your home swiftly and at a favorable price.​

Bottom Line

The spring housing market in South Snohomish and North King County offers promising opportunities for both buyers and sellers. As a local real estate expert, I’m here to guide you through the process and help you make the most of the current market dynamics. Whether you’re looking to buy or sell, feel free to reach out to me, Bill Jordan, for personalized advice and support.